Scientists warn as 2024 becomes 1st year average global temperature exceeds 1.5°C above pre-industrial level

2024 has been confirmed by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) to be the warmest year on record globally, and the first calendar year that the average global temperature exceeded 1.5°C above its pre-industrial level.

C3S is implemented on behalf of the European Commission by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), whose scientists have been monitoring key climate indicators, and documenting unprecedented daily, monthly, and annual temperature records over 2024.

This year the following organisations involved in global climate monitoring – ECMWF, NASA, NOAA, the UK Met Office, Berkeley Earth and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), have made a concerted effort to coordinate the release of their data, highlighting the exceptional conditions experienced during 2024.

Human-induced climate change remains the primary driver of extreme air and sea surface temperatures; while other factors, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), also contributed to the unusual temperatures observed during the year.

The defining factor in the evolution of many key climate indicators in 2024 has been the increasing global temperature, which is largely associated with the increasing concentration of greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere, a consequence of human activities.

According to Laurence Rouil, Director of Copernicus AMS at ECMWF, the data points clearly to a steady global increase of greenhouse gas emissions – and these remain the main agent of climate change.

Carlo Buontempo, Director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, ECMWF commented:

“All of the internationally produced global temperature datasets show that 2024 was the hottest year since records began in 1850. Humanity is in charge of its own destiny but how we respond to the climate challenge should be based on evidence. The future is in our hands – swift and decisive action can still alter the trajectory of our future climate.”

Samantha Burgess, Strategic Lead for Climate, ECMWF added:

“Each year in the last decade is one of the ten warmest on record. We are now teetering on the edge of passing the 1.5ºC level defined in the Paris Agreement and the average of the last two years is already above this level. These high global temperatures, coupled with record global atmospheric water vapour levels in 2024, meant unprecedented heatwaves and heavy rainfall events, causing misery for millions of people.”

Global surface air temperature highlights:

2024 was the warmest year in global temperature records going back to 1850. According to ERA5, the global average temperature of 15.10°C was 0.72°C above the 1991-2020 average, and 0.12°C above 2023, the previous warmest year on record. This is equivalent to 1.60°C above an estimate of the 1850-1900 temperature designated to be the pre-industrial level.

2024 is the first calendar year that has reached more than 1.5°C above the pre-industrial level.

Each of the past 10 years (2015–2024) was one of the 10 warmest years on record.

The monthly global average temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for 11 months of the year. Going back further, all months since July 2023, except for July 2024, have exceeded the 1.5°C level.

A new record high for daily global average temperature was reached on 22 July 2024, at 17.16°C.

2024 was the warmest year for all continental regions, except Antarctica and Australasia, as well as for sizeable parts of the ocean, particularly the North Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean, and the western Pacific Ocean.

Each month from January to June 2024 was warmer than the corresponding month in any previous year on record. Each month from July to December, except August, was each the second warmest, after 2023, for the time of year. August 2024 was tied with August 2023 as the warmest on record.

Ocean surface temperature highlights:

In 2024, the annual average sea surface temperature (SST) over the extra-polar ocean reached a record high of 20.87°C, 0.51°C above the 1991–2020 average.

The average extra-polar SST was at record high levels for the time of year from January to June 2024, continuing the streak of record months seen in the second half of 2023. From July to December 2024, the SST was the second warmest on record for the time of year, after 2023.

European temperature highlights:

2024 was the warmest year on record for Europe, with an average temperature of 10.69°C, 1.47°C above the average for the 1991-2020 reference period, and 0.28°C warmer than the previous record set in 2020.

Spring and summer were also the warmest on record for Europe, with the average temperature for spring (March-May) 1.50°C higher than the 1991-2020 seasonal average and the average temperature for summer (June–August) 1.54°C above the 1991-2020 seasonal average.

The scientists are warning that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane continued to increase and reached record annual levels in 2024, at 422 parts per million (ppm) and 1897 parts per billion (ppb) respectively. Carbon dioxide concentrations in 2024 were 2.9 ppm higher than in 2023, whereas methane concentrations were 3 ppb higher.

Climate conditions can influence extreme weather events

In 2024, extreme weather events were observed worldwide, ranging from severe storms and floods to heatwaves, droughts and wildfires. The increasing frequency and intensity of such events pose a significant risk to the livelihoods of people across the globe.

The total amount of water vapour in the atmosphere reached a record high in 2024, at about 5% above the 1991–2020 average — significantly higher than in 2023. This abundant supply of moisture amplified the potential for extreme rainfall events. In addition, combined with high sea surface temperatures, it contributed to the development of major storms, including tropical cyclones.

Prolonged dry periods in several regions created conditions conducive to wildfires. Large-scale and persistent wildfires were recorded across the Americas. In terms of wildfire carbon emissions, Bolivia and Venezuela recorded their highest levels on record, while Canada saw its second highest levels, based on data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS).

Sea ice in the Arctic and the Antarctic

Sea ice extent in the Arctic and around Antarctica is an essential indicator of the stability of Earth’s climate that is monitored by C3S. In 2024, sea ice extent in these regions was significantly below average.

Antarctic sea ice extent reached record or near-record low values for the second year in a row. From June to October, the monthly extent ranked second lowest behind 2023 and lowest in November, for the respective months. At its annual minimum in February, the monthly extent ranked third lowest in the satellite record. In the Arctic, sea ice extent was close to the 1991–2020 average until July but fell well below average in the following months. At its annual minimum in September, the monthly extent ranked fifth lowest in the satellite record.